The adage, “Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results is insanity,” perfectly captures the Indian National Congress’s (INC) self-inflicted crisis in Indian politics. Despite media spin and party rhetoric about a revitalised Congress, dig beneath the surface, and nothing has changed—same rhetoric, same leadership, same failures.
Why single out Congress over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)? Because the BJP as of today has no incentive to shift gears. As Amit Shah recently boasted, they’re poised to dominate for decades if this status quo persists—and they’re counting on Congress’s collapse to seal it. For over a decade, Rahul Gandhi has been Congress’s Achilles’ heel, recycling a tired playbook: hurling insults at Narendra Modi, chasing headlines with inflammatory quips, and offering zero vision. His latest stunt—claiming Donald Trump bullied Modi in a phone call, complete with a theatrical “Tu yeh jo kar raha hai, band kar… abhi ke abhi”—is pure desperation, more Bollywood villain than opposition leader; reminds of Praskash Raj from Singham “abhi ke abhi”
It’s a rehash of his predictable Modi-bashing, from “chowkidar chor hai” to “suit-boot ki sarkar.” Contrast this with 2014, when the BJP stormed to power not by abusing Sonia Gandhi but by riding the India Against Corruption movement and Modi’s Vibrant Gujarat model—a vision, real or hyped, that ignited voters’ imaginations with a promise of progress. What does Rahul offer? Snarky one-liners that insult the intelligence of India’s 1.4 billion voters, betting they’ll fall for cheap theatrics over a compelling “What if?”
Congress’ failure to inspire with a bold narrative isn’t just sad—it’s a betrayal of India’s democratic potential. Worse, Rahul Gandhi is the roadblock to Congress’s revival. Ironically, a party preaching decentralisation of power is chained to a single dynastic figure. Rahul calls every shot, smothering dissent and innovation, turning Congress into a Gandhi family fiefdom. Supporters might deflect, claiming the BJP is just as centralised. Yet, they’ll also point to power struggles among BJP heavyweights—Modi, Shah, Yogi Adityanath, Nitin Gadkari, the RSS, so on and so forth—proving the BJP’s internal dynamism. When did Congress last see a real power tussle? Not since Indira Gandhi’s 1969 party split. A party without internal competition isn’t democratic—it’s a dictatorship in disguise. If Congress can’t practice democracy within, how can it champion it in power?
The numbers lay bare Congress’s decay with brutal clarity. While supporters tout Lok Sabha gains—from mere 44 seats in 2014 to mere 52 in 2019 and 99 in 2024—this “progress” is a mirage. Congress contested fewer seats each cycle (436 in 2014, 421 in 2019, 328 in 2024), leaning on regional allies like the Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress to inflate its tally. Without the INDIA coalition’s 234 seats in 2024, Congress’s 99 would be a footnote, not a comeback. The real collapse is at the state level.
In the 1950s, Congress commanded approximately 2,000-2,500 MLAs across India’s ~3,000 state assembly seats, dominating nearly every state. By 2025, this has plummeted to an estimated 550-600, a staggering 70-75% drop. This decline, while not strictly linear, has been relentless. In the 1950s and 1960s, Congress held 70-80% of state seats, with roughly 2,000-2,500 MLAs. By the 1990s, the rise of regional parties like the DMK and Janata Dal cut this to 1,000-1,200. The post-2014 era saw an accelerated collapse, with 177 MPs and MLAs defecting between 2014 and 2021, toppling Congress governments in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, and Manipur. Today, Congress governs just three states outright—Karnataka (135 MLAs out of 224), Telangana (64 out of 119), and Himachal Pradesh (40 out of 68)—and is a junior partner in Jharkhand (16 out of 81), Maharashtra (16 out of 288), and Tamil Nadu (10).
In Uttar Pradesh, once a stronghold, Congress has just 2 MLAs out of 403. In West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, it’s down to zero and one MLA, respectively. With an estimated 550-600 MLAs nationwide, Congress is a shadow of its former self, losing ~20-30 MLAs annually since independence, with sharper drops of ~50-60 per year since 2014. Contrast this with the BJP’s relentless rise. From 2 Lok Sabha seats in 1984 to 240 in 2024 (with the NDA at 293), the BJP commands over 1,300 MLAs, a 38% share of India’s ~4,100 state assembly seats as of 2023, governing 12 states outright and sharing power in four others. Its 37% vote share in 2024 dwarfs Congress’s 21%, and its ability to win direct contests (240 seats to Congress’s 99) and expand into new regions like Assam showcases adaptability Congress lacks.
Rahul Gandhi’s leadership—or lack thereof—is the anchor dragging Congress down. His Bharat Jodo Yatra and Nyay Yatra, hyped by loyalists, failed to deliver electoral gains in most states covered. His divisive rhetoric—caste censuses, “vote theft” claims, attacks on Modi’s industrialist ties—lacks the aspirational pull of Modi’s “Viksit Bharat.” Even Congress insiders are breaking ranks: Karnataka Minister KN Rajanna publicly contradicted Rahul’s “vote theft” narrative, exposing disunity. Defections by veterans like Ghulam Nabi Azad, Kapil Sibal, and Jyotiraditya Scindia highlight Rahul’s failure to inspire loyalty, surrounded by sycophants rather than strategists.
Congress’ strategy—waiting for a BJP blunder like economic woes or communal tensions to swoop in with the lazy “who else?” excuse—isn’t leadership; it’s political vulturism. If the current trend holds, with ~50-60 MLAs lost annually, Congress’s 550-600 could dwindle to 100-200 by 2035, rendering it a footnote in most states. The longer Congress clings to Rahul Gandhi’s dynastic grip, the longer it delays relevance. Without dismantling the Gandhi stranglehold, rebuilding grassroots networks, or crafting a bold counter-narrative to the BJP’s Hindutva, Congress is sleepwalking into oblivion. It’s time for Congress and its supporters to face the truth: sticking with Rahul guarantees a future where the BJP’s dominance isn’t just likely—it’s inevitable.
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