Tejashwi Yadav spent months dominating headlines with fiery rhetoric — promises of “10 lakh jobs by Diwali,” a slick “MY” rebrand (Mahila-Yuva, they claimed, though the old Muslim-Yadav scent lingered), and sharp jabs at “Sushasan Babu” Nitish Kumar. For a while, it seemed like Bihar was his to take. Then came November 14, 2025: counting day, when the noise met the numbers.
In Raghopur — his family fortress — Tejashwi scraped a third win:
118,597 votes, margin 14,532 over BJP’s Satish Kumar Yadav (104,065).
He was trailing till round 15, down by 8,461 votes.
Only the late MY surge saved him.
A personal victory.
A political funeral.
Two hundred kilometers away, in Patna’s Election Commission war room, the giant screen told the real story:
NDA: 204. RJD: 25.
Did the infamous MY alliance betray Tejashwi?
Tejashwi’s ideological twin, Akhilesh Yadav, will say the same in 2027 when UP votes:
“This isn’t about Muslims and Yadavs — it’s about social justice.”
Some will buy it. Many won’t.
I dug into the data to answer one question:
Did MY fail RJD?
The answer: No. RJD failed everywhere else but at MY strongholds.
The 25 seats RJD won?
They weren’t victories.
They were refugee camps for a party with nowhere else to go.
The Table: RJD’s 25 Wins – A MY Monopoly
In the table below, the columns are as follows:
- The constituencies where RJD won
- The percentage of Muslims and Yadav voters in the constituency
- Overall voter turnout; i.e., the total number of voters who actually went and voted
- Estimated Muslim and Yadav voter turnout; It’s sourced from CSDS-Lokniti’s post-poll survey, booth-level data, and 30 years of election patterns. Turns out the voter turnout of Muslims and Yadavs are much higher than the overall turnout
- Estimated MY voters that voted
- RJD candidate
- The votes that the winning candidate actually got
| Constituency | Total M-Y Voters (Abs. + %) | Overall Turnout % | Est. M-Y Turnout % | Est. M-Y Votes Cast | RJD Candidate | RJD Votes Cast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghopur | ~165,000 (55%) | 64.2% | 78% | ~128,700 | Tejashwi Prasad Yadav | 118,597 |
| Jehanabad | ~135,000 (45%) | 62.8% | 74% | ~99,900 | Rahul Kumar | 82,400 |
| Raniganj | ~150,000 (50%) | 68.1% | 76% | ~114,000 | Vijay Kumar Singh | 78,200 |
| Raghunathpur | ~120,000 (40%) | 63.5% | 72% | ~86,400 | Osama Shahab | 85,248 |
| Ujiarpur | ~135,000 (45%) | 61.9% | 75% | ~101,250 | Alok Kumar Mehta | 79,800 |
| Morwa | ~120,000 (40%) | 62.3% | 73% | ~87,600 | Raghuvendra Nath Singh | 74,100 |
| Mohiuddinnagar | ~120,000 (40%) | 63.0% | 74% | ~88,800 | Lovel Yadav | 76,500 |
| Fatuha | ~105,000 (35%) | 58.7% | 68% | ~71,400 | Ramanand Yadav | 87,992 |
| Garkha | ~135,000 (45%) | 64.1% | 76% | ~102,600 | Vijay Lakshmi | 80,300 |
| Parsa | ~135,000 (45%) | 63.8% | 75% | ~101,250 | Hira Lal Yadav | 75,800 |
| Bajpatti | ~120,000 (40%) | 65.2% | 74% | ~88,800 | Mukesh Kumar Yadav | 77,900 |
| Mahishi | ~90,000 (30%) | 66.4% | 70% | ~63,000 | Pukar Singh | 72,200 |
| Nabinagar | ~75,000 (25%) | 59.1% | 65% | ~48,750 | Binod Kumar | 68,500 |
| Kuchaikote | ~105,000 (35%) | 62.7% | 72% | ~75,600 | Awadh Bihari Choudhary | 73,200 |
| Dhamdaha | ~135,000 (45%) | 69.3% | 77% | ~103,950 | Abdul Salam | 81,600 |
| Valmiki Nagar | ~90,000 (30%) | 67.8% | 70% | ~63,000 | Brij Kishor | 70,700 |
| Gaura Bauram | ~105,000 (35%) | 64.5% | 73% | ~76,650 | Afzal Ali Khan | 74,000 |
| Tarapur | ~90,000 (30%) | 63.2% | 68% | ~61,200 | Mandata Yadav | 71,500 |
| Narkatiaganj | ~75,000 (25%) | 66.9% | 67% | ~50,250 | Ajit Kumar Jha | 67,200 |
| Auraiya | ~90,000 (30%) | 61.4% | 68% | ~61,200 | Surendra Prasad Singh | 69,400 |
| Belaganj | ~105,000 (35%) | 60.8% | 70% | ~73,500 | Manorma Devi | 75,100 |
| Brahmpur | ~75,000 (25%) | 59.7% | 65% | ~48,750 | Rakesh Roshan | 66,900 |
| Dumraon | ~75,000 (25%) | 60.1% | 66% | ~49,500 | Shyam Raj | 68,200 |
| Rajpur | ~75,000 (25%) | 59.9% | 65% | ~48,750 | Ajay Singh | 67,700 |
| Tikari | ~90,000 (30%) | 61.3% | 68% | ~61,200 | Vijay Kumar | 70,000 |
What do I make of the data?
- MY as Sole Anchor: 18 of 25 wins in constituencies with ≥40% M-Y voters. RJD captured 70–95% of their turnout (e.g., 76% in Raghopur — ~128,700 MY votes → Tejashwi’s 118,597).
- No Seat Below 25% MY: The remaining 7 still had >25% M-Y share. In a multi-cornered fight, 25% loyal votes = victory. RJD didn’t win despite MY — it won only because of MY.
- Average RJD Win: ~76,000 votes — almost entirely from one bloc.
The Truth No One Says Out Loud
Tejashwi brings nothing new to the table.
Strip away the vote bank — and there’s zero trust, zero vision, zero roadmap.
- Jobs? Empty slogans.
- Mahila-Yuva? TV packaging for the same old MY.
- Social justice? Code for caste consolidation.
RJD got 22.8% of Bihar’s votes — the highest of any party.
But won only 25 seats.
NDA got 48.2% — and 204 seats.
RJD’s votes were locked in MY pockets.
NDA’s were spread across Bihar.
RJD didn’t lose because MY failed.
RJD lost because MY was all it had.
The Final Whisper
The 2025 Bihar Verdict: No Surprise. A Slap.
Caste silos? Family name? Studio soundbites? Aren’t enough!.
That’s why BJP rules and will continue to do so. And Rahul, Tejashwi, Akhilesh? They’ll keep screaming “Vote Chori!” “EVM Tampering!”
What else can they do? Absolutely nothing. They don’t know any better!
Data Sources:
- Election Commission of India (results.eci.gov.in)
- CSDS-Lokniti Post-Poll Survey 2025
- Bihar Caste Survey 2023
- Constituency voter rolls & demographic mapping
Share this if you believe elections are won on ground, not on TV.
Also read:
Infinite Sea of Opportunities 
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