The Shadows in the East

For decades, the Indian collective consciousness has been fixed on the Western border. Bollywood, news cycles, and political discourse revolve around the Wagah border, the LoC, and the periodic theatrics of Islamabad. Whether it was a lingering obsession with the partition or the undeniable charisma of figures like Imran Khan, the Indian media’s heart—and its cameras—stayed focused on the West.

But while India was looking away, the pressure cooker in the East was simmering. It wasn’t a sudden explosion; it was a slow, agonizing heat that turned up a few degrees every year for thirty years. Today, that pressure cooker has finally blown its lid. The headlines we see now—two student politicians gunned down in broad daylight, Hindu men lynched over blasphemy, and a Nobel laureate leading a country on the brink—are not just “news.” They are the climax of a decades-long tragedy and probably a beginning of a horror story!

To understand why Bangladesh is currently discussing military pacts with Pakistan for the first time since 1971, we have to look past the 2024 “Monsoon Revolution” and dig into the bones of the state.

The 2024 Catalyst: Quotas, Razakars, and the Killing Fields

The immediate trigger for the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina regime was the “Quota Reform Movement.” On the surface, it was about jobs. A court ruling had reinstated a 30% reservation in civil service jobs for the descendants of the 1971 “Freedom Fighters.” In a country where the youth face staggering unemployment, this was seen as a hereditary aristocracy for the Awami League (AL) faithful.

But the match that lit the fire was a single word: Razakar.

When Sheikh Hasina, the “Iron Lady” of Dhaka, mockingly asked if the protesting students were the children of Razakars (the collaborators who assisted the Pakistani army in the 1971 genocide, – the same concept that raised havoc in West Bengal and Hyderabad post partition). These “Gen Z” protesters, who had no living memory of 1971 but felt the daily sting of 2024’s corruption, reclaimed the slur. They marched through Dhaka University chanting, “Who are you? Who are we? Razakar! Razakar!”

It was a psychological rupture. Hasina had a horrific memory of Razakar; for Gen-Z Razakar was just a catchy term.

Hasina responded (to the Razakar) the only way she knew how: with force. She ordered the police and the army to open fire. The result? Over 1,400 casualties (as per UN estimates) and a nation that had seen enough blood. On August 5, 2024, the “Gen Z” revolution reached her doorstep.

On May 12, 2025, the Yunus administration issued a crushing executive order under the Anti-Terrorism Act, officially banning the Awami League and its student wing. By branding the nation’s founding party a “terrorist organization,” the Caretaker Government didn’t just sideline Hasina—it stripped her movement of its legal right to exist.

The most clinical move was the overhaul of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT). Originally built by Hasina to purge her rivals, the Yunus government reconstituted the bench with judges she had once persecuted. They then amended the law to include the 2024 uprising under “crimes against humanity,” effectively turning Hasina’s own judicial weapon into a heat-seeking missile aimed directly at her.

On November 17, 2025, the ICT sentenced Hasina to death in absentia. This was the ultimate endgame of the Caretaker’s strategy. Hasina didn’t flee to India for a tactical retreat; she fled to stay alive. New Delhi is now the only thing standing between an Indian ally and a literal noose.

The Caretaker Government: A Judicial Game of Chess

To an Indian reader, the concept of a “Caretaker Government” (CTG) sounds alien. In India, the Election Commission (ECI) is an independent titan. From T.N. Seshan onwards, the ECI has ensured that when an election is announced, the ruling party loses its “teeth” through the Model Code of Conduct.

Bangladesh never had a T.N. Seshan. Instead, they had the CTG—a system where, 90 days before an election, the government is handed over to a neutral body, usually led by the most recently retired Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. It was meant to be the “umpire” in a game where both teams (AL and BNP) were known for booth capturing and ballot stuffing.

The 2006 Power Play: In 2004, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Khaleda Zia, saw a problem. If the CTG was led by the last retired Chief Justice, they needed a “friendly” judge in that seat. To ensure this, the BNP-led government passed a constitutional amendment extending the retirement age of Supreme Court judges from 65 to 67. Why? Because this specific two-year extension ensured that Justice K.M. Hasan, a former BNP member, would be the one to preside over the 2006 caretaker government.

The Awami League saw the trap. The streets of Dhaka turned into a warzone—the infamous “Logi Boitha” movement—where protesters fought with boat hooks and oars. The chaos was so absolute that the military stepped in, declaring a state of emergency that lasted two years (2007–2008).

The 2011 Revenge: When Hasina returned to power in 2009, she didn’t just fix the system—she dismantled it. In 2011, using a Supreme Court verdict as a shield, the AL abolished the Caretaker Government system entirely. They argued that “non-elected people” shouldn’t run a democracy.

The real reason? It allowed the AL to run the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections while remaining in the driver’s seat. Without a neutral “umpire,” these elections became shams. In 2018, the “Night-time Election” saw ballots stuffed into boxes before the sun even rose. This is why the BNP boycotted the 2024 polls; they knew the game was rigged before the first coin was tossed.

The Return of the Prince: Tarique Rahman’s “Cleansing”

If Sheikh Hasina was the protagonist of the last 15 years, her nemesis was not just Khaleda Zia, but her son, Tarique Rahman.

For 18 years, Tarique lived in self-imposed exile in London. During Hasina’s reign, he was the “Ghost of London,” convicted in absentia for corruption, money laundering, and most infamously, the 2004 Grenade Attack on an AL rally. He was the face of the “Hawa Bhaban”—a parallel power center during the BNP’s 2001–2006 rule that was synonymous with extortion and shadow governance.

But since the August 2024 revolution, the narrative has shifted overnight.

  • The Judicial Pivot: The Muhammad Yunus-led caretaker government has overseen a massive “cleansing” of Tarique’s record. In late 2024 and throughout 2025, the courts—now purged of Hasina loyalists—began dropping the 80+ cases against him.
  • The Return: As of December 2025, Tarique Rahman is preparing for a hero’s return to Dhaka. He is no longer a “convict”; he is being positioned as the Prime Minister-in-waiting for the February 2026 elections.

For India, this is a nightmare scenario. Tarique has historically been seen as pro-Pakistan and has deep ties with Islamist organizations. While the BNP has tried to “soften” his image in London, New Delhi remains deeply skeptical of the man who once allegedly allowed Indian insurgent groups to operate freely from Bangladeshi soil.

The Ideological Vacuum: Islamism Takes Center Stage

With the Awami League officially banned and branded a “terrorist organization,” the secular-nationalist pole of Bangladeshi politics has vanished. In its place, the “Islamist forces” that Hasina kept in cages for 15 years have taken over the streets.

Groups like Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefajat-e-Islam are no longer on the fringes; they are the kingmakers. We are seeing a “cultural cleansing” of anything deemed too “pro-India” or “too secular.”

  • The Press under Fire: Major media houses like Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, which were critical of Hasina but also secular in outlook, have had their offices attacked by mobs.
  • The Blasphemy Lynching: The recent reports of Hindu men being lynched for alleged blasphemy aren’t just isolated crimes; they are signals. They signal that the “New Bangladesh” is shifting from a linguistic identity (Bengali) to a religious one (Muslim).

The Pakistan Pivot: A Strategic Shift

Perhaps the most shocking development is the sudden “thaw” between Dhaka and Islamabad.

  • Trade and Military: For the first time in 50 years, direct shipping routes between Karachi and Chittagong have resumed. Even more concerning are the reports of military-to-military staff talks. In November 2025, a high-level Pakistani military production team visited Dhaka.
  • The Nuclear Dimension: Rumors are swirling of a “Mutual Defence Agreement” between Bangladesh and Pakistan, modeled after the Saudi-Pakistan pact.

This isn’t just about trade; it’s about a shared animosity toward India. For the caretaker government and the rising Islamist right, “Anti-India” has become the new national glue.

What’s Next? The February 2026 Crossroads

Bangladesh is heading toward a general election on February 12, 2026.

  1. The BNP Dominance: With the AL banned, the BNP is the only major political machine left standing. Tarique Rahman’s return will likely seal their victory.
  2. The Student Third Front: The student leaders who led the 2024 revolution have formed the National Citizen Party (NCP). They are the “wildcards”—idealistic, anti-dynasty, but currently lacking the organizational muscle to beat the BNP-Jamaat alliance.
  3. The India Dilemma: India is stuck. If it sends Hasina back, it loses its reputation as a “safe harbor” and guarantees her execution. If it keeps her, it guarantees that the next government in Dhaka will be hostile for a decade.

Conclusion

The crisis in Bangladesh is not a temporary “glitch” in the neighborhood. It is a fundamental rewriting of the 1971 settlement. The secular, pro-India consensus that held the country together (often through the iron fist of Sheikh Hasina) is dead.

What is rising in its place is a Bangladesh that looks more like Pakistan—a country where the judiciary is a tool for the current rulers, where the “Caretaker” is a kingmaker, and where the border with India is no longer a bridge, but a door to terror.

The “Battle of the Begums” is over. One Begum is in a hospital in Dhaka; the other is in a safe house in India. But the fire they started is just beginning to burn.

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