The year 2025 is drawing to a close, and the winter air in South Delhi feels different this year. There is a sense of quiet confidence, a stark contrast to the frantic, high-decibel television debates of May. If you ask a geopolitical analyst what changed India’s standing in the world this year, they will give you two words: Operation Sindoor.

But to understand the consequence of Operation Sindoor, we must look past the grainy footage of missiles and the satellite imagery of charred hangars. There is a more precise way to know who won a 21st-century war without getting bogged down in the technical “he-said, she-said” of military spokespersons. We don’t need to debate who downed how many planes or if every missile hit its coordinate.

In the modern world, victory is not just about holding territory; it is about holding your economy together. There are three undeniable pillars of the 2025 conflict that the Pakistani state, despite its loud narrative-building, simply cannot deny.

I. The Budget of Despair (The “Soviet Trap”)

The first indicator of a nation’s health post-conflict is its budget. If you win a war, your economy should stabilize, and your people should see the “peace dividend.” If you lose, your budget becomes a map of your scars.

Following the May standoff, Pakistan’s Federal Budget for FY 2025-26 revealed a shocking state of desperation. To fix the gaping holes in its air defense—to replace the specialized drones, loitering munitions, and radar systems that vanished during that final night over Muridke and Bahawalpur—Pakistan jacked up its defense budget by a staggering 20%, reaching PKR 2.55 trillion (~$9 billion).

To fund this surge, the Pakistani Finance Ministry had to perform a brutal “balancing act.” While defense went up by double digits, overall government expenditure was slashed by 7%.

This wasn’t just a spreadsheet adjustment. It was the literal robbing of schools, hospitals, and vital road projects to pay for ammunition. In a country already reeling from 26% inflation earlier in the year, cutting development funds (PSDP) is a recipe for long-term social implosion.

If Pakistan truly “won” the war, why this panicked desperation?

You don’t slash your own people’s health and education post a victory. You do it to desperately replace what was broken in three days of a high-tech onslaught.

II. The 10-Year Bond: The World’s “Truth Meter”

If you want to know what the world’s most powerful banks and financial institutions really think of a country, don’t read the news—read the 10-Year Government Security Bond (G-Sec) yield. This number is the ultimate “Trust Meter.”

During the height of Operation Sindoor, India’s 10-year G-Sec yield remained anchored at 6.4% to 6.6%. Think about the magnitude of that. Even while India was launching a major military operation, global investors didn’t blink. They didn’t see India as a “vulnerable” war zone; they saw it as a stable, strong country whose growth was independent of border skirmishes. If India had “de-escalated out of weakness” or “lost the narrative,” the interest rates would have spiked as capital fled for safety. They didn’t.

Now look across the border. Pakistan’s 10-year rates have been hovering in the ruinous 12% to 14% range. Why the Gap? Because the world sees Pakistan as a high-risk, insecure jurisdiction. When a bank lends money to India, it charges 6.4% because it knows the money is safe. When it lends to Pakistan, it charges 12%—a “Conflict Premium.“

This 6% gap is the “Invisible Tax” Pakistan pays for its hostility. While India uses its “cheap” 6.4% capital to build semi-conductor plants and highways, Pakistan uses its “expensive” 12% capital just to pay off the interest on old loans. This isn’t just a financial metric; it is a death sentence for growth.

III. The “Invisible Blockade”: Risk Premiums and Port Isolation

While the air war lasted only a few days, the Economic Quarantine of Pakistan lasted the entire year. Supply chains are cold and calculating; they don’t care about the bravery of pilots; they care about the safety of cargo.

Major global shipping lines like COSCO and OOCL did something the Indian Navy didn’t even need to do: they effectively blockaded Karachi by suspending services during the tension.

  • Rerouting Costs: All imports had to be rerouted via slower, costlier feeder vessels from Dubai or Colombo. The Karachi Chamber of Commerce reported import delays of 30 to 50 days.
  • The “War Surcharge”: Shipping companies slapped an additional $300 to $800 surcharge on every single container unit destined for Pakistan.
  • The Insurance Hammer: Global insurers jacked up premiums for any vessel docking in the Arabian Sea ports of Pakistan by 15–25%. The Domestic Collapse In Karachi, the internal logistics chain snapped. Trucking rates surged from PKR 20,000 to nearly PKR 60,000 per load—a 200% jump. For the textile sector—the lifeblood of Pakistan’s exports—the rise in insurance and freight costs made their products uncompetitive in the global market.

At the very same time India’s Mundra and Mumbai ports and other ports functioned normally under the protection of S-400 and Akash systems, Karachi became a “high-risk” zone that the world preferred to avoid.

Had Pakistan won the war as they very proudly and conveniently claim, the Indian ports would have been a risk zone as well because the rest of the world would have worried about their cargo and insurance. Wouldn’t they?

Conclusion: The Abrogation of Old Narratives

As we close 2025, there are many “alternative facts” floating around. There are those who claim Pakistan won the war… but then again, they have claimed to win every war since 1948, with the sole exception of 1971.

They fought 1965 with the sole objective of getting Kashmir, but they almost end up losing Lahore. Did they get Kashmir?

They tried in 1999 in Kargil again did they get Kashmir?

  • Their sole objective has been to “liberate” Kashmir. Yet, since 1948, the map has only hardened against them.
  • In 2019, the Modi government performed a legal surgical strike by abrogating Article 370, integrating the state fully into India and ending the “special status” narrative forever.
  • In 2025, after “winning” Operation Sindoor, Pakistan finds itself under a $7 billion IMF straightjacket, forced to accept 11 humiliating new conditions that strip away its economic sovereignty just to keep the lights on.

The war of 2025 didn’t end with a treaty; it ended with a Default. India is building a $10 Trillion future at 6.4% interest, while Pakistan is buying yesterday’s bullets at 12% interest with money taken from its own children’s healthcare.

That is the undeniable truth of 2025. The rest is just noise.

Thanks for reading!

If you would like to know about some other aspects of Operation Sindoor, have a look at the following-

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